The Carlyle Compass

Latest Edition

The future isn't what it used to be

Matt Savino considers the impact of AI investment and infrastructure on software companies and the broader market.

Read the latest edition

The Carlyle Compass is a weekly newsletter that analyzes the latest market shifts for a diverse picture of what's ahead.

Previous Editions

Space commonality

Jason Thomas examines structural shifts moving capital toward private markets.

The abundance illusion

How markets are rethinking supply, flexibility and the strategic value of inventory.

A monetary lapse of reason

What recent policy decisions may mean for investors in private markets.

Going with the deal flow

Quarterly signals across private markets point to resilience and selectivity.

All eyes on the Strait of Hormuz

Energy and trade routes remain central to the global market outlook.

They saw a dip and they bought it

What investor behavior says about confidence and market expectations.

A boomtown's turn in the credit cycle

Capital formation and credit cycles continue to reshape opportunity.

Software on egg now

Artificial intelligence is changing software economics and investor attention.

Private markets at an inflection point

How private capital can navigate a shifting macro environment.

Resilient growth, rising costs, growing divergence

Signals across markets point to uneven growth and resilience.

Misreading the tea leaves

Short-term market readings can obscure the longer-term picture.

Tax credits, no conflict

Assessing the path forward in tax credits and energy policy.

You can't print molecules

Commodity markets and physical supply remain deeply connected.

The ink is blue

Growth and investment signals continue to evolve across markets.

The rise of the security premium

Security and resilience are reshaping capital allocation.

The old economy begins to take its revenge

Essential infrastructure and industry keep shaping private markets.

Sudden, AI, and a series of rate cuts

Policy and technology signals converge in a volatile environment.

Warning the Waters

Macro signals and allocation choices through changing cycles.

A Light at the End of the Liquidity Tunnel

Private markets show improving signs after a muted liquidity cycle.

Are we in an AI bubble?

Comparing past innovation cycles with the current AI investment wave.

Just in case, the possibility for higher commodity prices

Physical constraints can matter for market resilience.

Five Questions for 2026

A look at the questions likely to shape the next phase of markets.

Venezuela, Power, and Markets

Energy and politics remain deeply intertwined.

Three Themes Shaped the 2025 Macro Environment

A review of major forces shaping the market backdrop.

Bursting the Bubble in the AI Debate

A more practical view of AI investment and market expectations.

How Much Does AI Rhyme with shale?

Comparing investment waves across technology and energy.

Newton's Third Law of Economics

Markets rarely move in only one direction.

No Easy Way Out

Private markets require patience and discipline through cycles.